Phase 3 Model And Parser Rebuild

Gate Status

Candidate strategies0

Model vs randomPass

Model vs morning lineFAILS_MORNING_LINE

Probability validityINVALID_PROBABILITIES

Show coverage5.67%

Final odds coverage2.40%

No strategy is candidate-profitable or live-wagerable in Phase 3. EV and overlay logic stays blocked while market and calibration gates remain unresolved.

Parser Cleanup

Contaminated or changed names fixed: 5041
Names still needing human review: 20
Program/post differences by category:
NORMAL_TRACK_PROGRAM_ASSIGNMENT: 4221

horse_name_cleanup_audit.csv and program_post_difference_audit.csv

Outcome Encoding

Raw finish rows available: 6682
Raw finish coverage: 45.83%
Capped finish-position bug found: No

outcome audit, raw-finish rank performance, and bucket performance

Market Baseline

Metric	Value
Model rank #1 win hit rate	28.66%
Morning-line favorite win hit rate	32.65%
Random win hit rate	15.35%
Model gate	FAILS_MORNING_LINE
Signal label	WEAK_SIGNAL_NOT_ACTIONABLE

market_baseline_comparison.csv, baseline_by_segment.csv

Residual And Hybrid Model

Hybrid gate: FAILS_MARKET_ONLY
Market-only win hit rate: 32.65%
Hybrid win hit rate: 31.83%

hybrid_vs_market_only.csv, residual_model_lift.csv, model_disagreement_buckets.csv

Probability Rebuild

Overall status: INVALID_PROBABILITIES
Win ECE: 0.018851
Place ECE: 0.032828
Show ECE: 0.0464

probability_rebuild_summary.json, win calibration, place calibration, show calibration

Data-Source Repair

TrackMaster files found: 0
TrackMaster show repair candidates: 0
Show payout coverage improved: No
Final odds coverage improved: No

trackmaster_file_inventory.csv, trackmaster_parse_audit.csv, final odds by date

Strategy Gate

Label	Race Selection Rate	Tickets Per Selected Race	Coverage Rate	Resolved Bets	Gate Label	Disabled Reasons
Corrected win only	0.9981	1.0	0.9986	2079	Disabled: model fails morning-line gate	model fails morning-line favorite gate; broad exposure, not selective
Corrected place only	0.9981	1.0	1.0	2082	Disabled: model fails morning-line gate	model fails morning-line favorite gate; broad exposure, not selective
Corrected show only	1.0	1.0	0.0575	120	Disabled: low coverage	low coverage; model fails morning-line favorite gate; broad exposure, not selective
Corrected 70% show	0.4012	1.0	0.0693	58	Disabled: low coverage	low coverage; model fails morning-line favorite gate; broad exposure, not selective
Complete-data show	0.0575	1.0	1.0	120	Disabled: model fails morning-line gate	model fails morning-line favorite gate
Corrected Show EV	0.1055	1.0	0.0455	10	Disabled: low coverage	low coverage; invalid probabilities block EV/overlay strategies; model fails morning-line favorite gate
Corrected Place EV	0.0724	1.0	1.0	151	Disabled: model fails morning-line gate	invalid probabilities block EV/overlay strategies; model fails morning-line favorite gate
Corrected win overlay	0.7809	1.0	0.9988	1627	Disabled: model fails morning-line gate	invalid probabilities block EV/overlay strategies; model fails morning-line favorite gate; broad exposure, not selective
Corrected segment	0.0	0.0	0.0	0	No bets generated	No bets generated; model fails morning-line favorite gate
Corrected vuln fav	0.0144	1.0	0.0	0	Not validated: no resolved bets	low coverage; Not validated: no resolved bets; model fails morning-line favorite gate
Corrected exacta	0.2828	1.0	0.9983	589	Disabled: model fails morning-line gate	model fails morning-line favorite gate
Corrected filtered show	0.1323	1.0	0.0761	21	Disabled: low coverage	low coverage; model fails morning-line favorite gate
Corrected fancy	0.9947	2.1687	0.9991	4496	Disabled: model fails morning-line gate	model fails morning-line favorite gate; broad exposure, not selective
Corrected learned	0.9981	1.7214	0.9992	3581	Disabled: model fails morning-line gate	model fails morning-line favorite gate; broad exposure, not selective
Corrected original	0.9981	1.7089	0.9992	3555	Disabled: model fails morning-line gate	model fails morning-line favorite gate; broad exposure, not selective