forensic_phase_2

Prediction Quality Audit

Direct Answers

Model beats randomYes
Beats morning lineNo
Beats final favoriteInsufficient
Candidate strategies0

The current model does not clear the forensic gate.

Parser And Coverage

Disabled Strategy Reasons

StrategySelection rateValidationReason
Corrected win only0.9981not validatedbroad exposure, not selective
Corrected place only0.9981not validatedbroad exposure, not selective
Corrected show only1.0not validatedpoor coverage; insufficient resolved bets; broad exposure, not selective
Corrected 70% show0.4012not validatedpoor coverage; insufficient resolved bets; broad exposure, not selective
Complete-data show0.0575not validatedinsufficient resolved bets
Corrected Show EV0.1055not validatedproxy-only odds; poor coverage; insufficient resolved bets; phase-2 disabled pending baseline/calibration pass; invalid probability calibration
Corrected Place EV0.0724not validatedproxy-only odds; insufficient resolved bets; phase-2 disabled pending baseline/calibration pass; invalid probability calibration
Corrected win overlay0.7809not validatedproxy-only odds; phase-2 disabled pending baseline/calibration pass; broad exposure, not selective
Corrected segment0.0not validatedproxy-only odds; poor coverage; insufficient resolved bets; phase-2 disabled pending baseline/calibration pass
Corrected vuln fav0.0144not validatedproxy-only odds; poor coverage; insufficient resolved bets; phase-2 disabled pending baseline/calibration pass
Corrected filtered show0.1323not validatedpoor coverage; insufficient resolved bets
Corrected fancy2.1572not validatedbroad exposure, not selective
Corrected learned1.7181not validatedbroad exposure, not selective
Corrected original1.7057not validatedbroad exposure, not selective

Forensic Exports

forensic_predictions.csv, model_rank_performance.csv, baseline_comparison.csv, odds_parser_audit.csv, stake_ledger_audit.csv, forensic_summary.json