{
  "baseline_answers": {
    "final_odds_favorite_win_hit_rate_diagnostic_only": 0.14,
    "final_public_favorite_diagnostic_status": "insufficient_final_odds_coverage",
    "final_public_favorite_selection_rate": 0.024,
    "model_beats_final_public_favorite_hit_rate_diagnostic_only": null,
    "model_beats_morning_line_favorite_hit_rate": false,
    "model_beats_random_hit_rate": true,
    "model_rank_1_win_hit_rate": 0.2866,
    "morning_line_favorite_win_hit_rate": 0.3265,
    "random_win_hit_rate": 0.1535
  },
  "calibration": {
    "place": {
      "expected_calibration_error": 0.336877,
      "status": "INVALID_PROBABILITIES"
    },
    "show": {
      "expected_calibration_error": 0.502486,
      "status": "INVALID_PROBABILITIES"
    },
    "win": {
      "expected_calibration_error": 0.169204,
      "status": "INVALID_PROBABILITIES"
    }
  },
  "candidate_strategy_count": 0,
  "data_quality": {
    "coupled_entry_rows": 0,
    "entries_checked": 14926,
    "morning_line_parseable_rows": 14926,
    "program_number_and_post_position_separated": true,
    "program_post_differences": 4221
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  "disabled_strategies": [
    {
      "disabled_reasons": "broad exposure, not selective",
      "label": "Corrected win only",
      "scenario": "corrected_win_only",
      "selection_rate": 0.9981,
      "validation_label": "not validated"
    },
    {
      "disabled_reasons": "broad exposure, not selective",
      "label": "Corrected place only",
      "scenario": "corrected_place_only",
      "selection_rate": 0.9981,
      "validation_label": "not validated"
    },
    {
      "disabled_reasons": "poor coverage; insufficient resolved bets; broad exposure, not selective",
      "label": "Corrected show only",
      "scenario": "corrected_show_only",
      "selection_rate": 1.0,
      "validation_label": "not validated"
    },
    {
      "disabled_reasons": "poor coverage; insufficient resolved bets; broad exposure, not selective",
      "label": "Corrected 70% show",
      "scenario": "corrected_70_show_limit",
      "selection_rate": 0.4012,
      "validation_label": "not validated"
    },
    {
      "disabled_reasons": "insufficient resolved bets",
      "label": "Complete-data show",
      "scenario": "corrected_complete_data_show_baseline",
      "selection_rate": 0.0575,
      "validation_label": "not validated"
    },
    {
      "disabled_reasons": "proxy-only odds; poor coverage; insufficient resolved bets; phase-2 disabled pending baseline/calibration pass; invalid probability calibration",
      "label": "Corrected Show EV",
      "scenario": "corrected_calibrated_show_overlay",
      "selection_rate": 0.1055,
      "validation_label": "not validated"
    },
    {
      "disabled_reasons": "proxy-only odds; insufficient resolved bets; phase-2 disabled pending baseline/calibration pass; invalid probability calibration",
      "label": "Corrected Place EV",
      "scenario": "corrected_calibrated_place_overlay",
      "selection_rate": 0.0724,
      "validation_label": "not validated"
    },
    {
      "disabled_reasons": "proxy-only odds; phase-2 disabled pending baseline/calibration pass; broad exposure, not selective",
      "label": "Corrected win overlay",
      "scenario": "corrected_win_overlay",
      "selection_rate": 0.7809,
      "validation_label": "not validated"
    },
    {
      "disabled_reasons": "proxy-only odds; poor coverage; insufficient resolved bets; phase-2 disabled pending baseline/calibration pass",
      "label": "Corrected segment",
      "scenario": "corrected_segment_specialist",
      "selection_rate": 0.0,
      "validation_label": "not validated"
    },
    {
      "disabled_reasons": "proxy-only odds; poor coverage; insufficient resolved bets; phase-2 disabled pending baseline/calibration pass",
      "label": "Corrected vuln fav",
      "scenario": "corrected_vulnerable_favorite",
      "selection_rate": 0.0144,
      "validation_label": "not validated"
    },
    {
      "disabled_reasons": "poor coverage; insufficient resolved bets",
      "label": "Corrected filtered show",
      "scenario": "corrected_filtered_show",
      "selection_rate": 0.1323,
      "validation_label": "not validated"
    },
    {
      "disabled_reasons": "broad exposure, not selective",
      "label": "Corrected fancy",
      "scenario": "corrected_fancy",
      "selection_rate": 2.1572,
      "validation_label": "not validated"
    },
    {
      "disabled_reasons": "broad exposure, not selective",
      "label": "Corrected learned",
      "scenario": "corrected_learned",
      "selection_rate": 1.7181,
      "validation_label": "not validated"
    },
    {
      "disabled_reasons": "broad exposure, not selective",
      "label": "Corrected original",
      "scenario": "corrected_original",
      "selection_rate": 1.7057,
      "validation_label": "not validated"
    }
  ],
  "live_wagerable_strategy_count": 0,
  "model_quality": {
    "final_odds_favorite_coverage": 0.024,
    "final_odds_rank_finish_correlation": 0.19988454736600936,
    "horses": 14581,
    "model_rank_1_average_finish": 1.8556,
    "model_rank_finish_correlation": 0.12562083530372686,
    "model_rank_last_average_finish": 2.1564,
    "model_rank_morning_line_rank_correlation": 0.5599151384692506,
    "morning_line_favorite_coverage": 1.0,
    "probability_scores": {
      "place": {
        "brier": 0.364043,
        "count": 6682,
        "log_loss": 2.019324
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      "show": {
        "brier": 0.34183,
        "count": 6682,
        "log_loss": 2.42147
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      "win": {
        "brier": 0.250319,
        "count": 6682,
        "log_loss": 1.274481
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    },
    "races": 2086,
    "warnings": [
      "final_odds_favorite_missing_in_more_than_5_percent"
    ]
  },
  "paper_trade": {
    "lock_time_seconds_before_post": 120,
    "namespace": "paper_trade",
    "no_live_betting": true,
    "notes": "Framework initialized only; no live tote snapshots collected and no bets placed.",
    "reports_initialized": [
      "closing_line_value.csv",
      "model_vs_public_probability.csv",
      "paper_trade_snapshots.csv",
      "paper_trade_strategy_summary.csv",
      "tote_movement_by_horse.csv"
    ],
    "snapshot_offsets_minutes": [
      30,
      15,
      10,
      5,
      2,
      0
    ],
    "snapshots_collected": 0
  },
  "phase": "forensic_phase_2",
  "plain_english_finding": "The current model does not clear the forensic gate.",
  "show_repair": {
    "adapter": "TrackMasterResultsAdapter",
    "auto_applied": 0,
    "candidate_rows": 0,
    "conflict_rows": 0,
    "input_dir": "/home/mayolube/horse_backtester/data/vendor/trackmaster",
    "missing_show_races": 1967,
    "notes": "Dry-run only; production DB not modified.",
    "source": "trackmaster",
    "vendor_files": 0
  },
  "stake_ledger": {
    "all_costs_match": true,
    "scenarios": {
      "corrected_70_show_limit": {
        "cost_mismatch_count": 0,
        "net_sum": -1245.7,
        "return_sum": 1504.3,
        "stake_sum": 41000.0,
        "tickets": 837
      },
      "corrected_calibrated_place_overlay": {
        "cost_mismatch_count": 0,
        "net_sum": -2286.8,
        "return_sum": 1719.2,
        "stake_sum": 4006.0,
        "tickets": 151
      },
      "corrected_calibrated_show_overlay": {
        "cost_mismatch_count": 0,
        "net_sum": -168.0,
        "return_sum": 82.0,
        "stake_sum": 5636.0,
        "tickets": 220
      },
      "corrected_complete_data_show_baseline": {
        "cost_mismatch_count": 0,
        "net_sum": -1218.8,
        "return_sum": 1781.2,
        "stake_sum": 3000.0,
        "tickets": 120
      },
      "corrected_exacta_surgical": {
        "cost_mismatch_count": 0,
        "net_sum": -10077.17,
        "return_sum": 6472.83,
        "stake_sum": 16570.0,
        "tickets": 590
      },
      "corrected_fancy": {
        "cost_mismatch_count": 0,
        "net_sum": -20311.33,
        "return_sum": 20558.67,
        "stake_sum": 40906.0,
        "tickets": 4500
      },
      "corrected_filtered_show": {
        "cost_mismatch_count": 0,
        "net_sum": -494.7,
        "return_sum": 737.3,
        "stake_sum": 14138.0,
        "tickets": 276
      },
      "corrected_learned": {
        "cost_mismatch_count": 0,
        "net_sum": -18551.7,
        "return_sum": 21070.3,
        "stake_sum": 39664.0,
        "tickets": 3584
      },
      "corrected_original": {
        "cost_mismatch_count": 0,
        "net_sum": -17199.7,
        "return_sum": 22226.3,
        "stake_sum": 39464.0,
        "tickets": 3558
      },
      "corrected_place_only": {
        "cost_mismatch_count": 0,
        "net_sum": -17698.1,
        "return_sum": 24051.9,
        "stake_sum": 41750.0,
        "tickets": 2082
      },
      "corrected_show_only": {
        "cost_mismatch_count": 0,
        "net_sum": -1218.8,
        "return_sum": 1781.2,
        "stake_sum": 41750.0,
        "tickets": 2086
      },
      "corrected_vulnerable_favorite": {
        "cost_mismatch_count": 0,
        "net_sum": 0.0,
        "return_sum": 0.0,
        "stake_sum": 736.0,
        "tickets": 30
      },
      "corrected_win_only": {
        "cost_mismatch_count": 0,
        "net_sum": -17257.9,
        "return_sum": 24432.1,
        "stake_sum": 41750.0,
        "tickets": 2082
      },
      "corrected_win_overlay": {
        "cost_mismatch_count": 0,
        "net_sum": -23372.0,
        "return_sum": 14530.0,
        "stake_sum": 37942.0,
        "tickets": 1629
      }
    }
  }
}