Warning
Historical research only. These rules use morning-line proxy data and locked model ranks. No strategy is candidate-profitable, paper-tradable, or live-wagerable from this pass.
Rules / variants39
Generated bets36
Research promising0
Live wagerable0
Validation Status
- Candidate strategies remain 0.
- Paper evaluation remains disabled.
- Live-wagerable strategies remain 0.
- Ticket validation: passed
- Summary validation: passed
Strategy Table
| Strategy | Total Bets | Resolved Bets | Coverage Rate | Discovery Roi | Walk Forward Roi | Holdout Roi | Validation Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ml_favorite_win_band | 1313 | 1311 | 0.9985 | -0.4445 | -0.4345 | -0.4828 | NOT_VALIDATED |
| ml_favorite_place_band | 1023 | 1023 | 1.0 | -0.4386 | -0.4114 | -0.5613 | NOT_VALIDATED |
| ml_model_consensus_win | 933 | 930 | 0.9968 | -0.4468 | -0.4387 | -0.4822 | NOT_VALIDATED |
| ml_model_consensus_place | 2611 | 2611 | 1.0 | -0.4101 | -0.3937 | -0.4853 | NOT_VALIDATED |
| model_top_ml_disagreement_win | 628 | 628 | 1.0 | -0.328 | -0.3196 | -0.3609 | NOT_VALIDATED |
| second_choice_value_place | 310 | 310 | 1.0 | -0.4387 | -0.4488 | -0.3975 | NOT_VALIDATED |
| fade_weak_ml_favorite_place | 396 | 396 | 1.0 | -0.5158 | -0.5246 | -0.4835 | NOT_VALIDATED |
| anti_model_favorite_win | 304 | 304 | 1.0 | -0.4362 | -0.4366 | -0.4347 | NOT_VALIDATED |
| inside_post_consensus_win | 1963 | 1963 | 1.0 | -0.4477 | -0.4543 | -0.418 | NOT_VALIDATED |
| inside_post_consensus_place | 1963 | 1963 | 1.0 | -0.441 | -0.4236 | -0.5192 | NOT_VALIDATED |
| outside_post_value_win | 196 | 196 | 1.0 | -0.226 | -0.1052 | -0.6829 | SMALL_SAMPLE_DIAGNOSTIC |
| small_field_chalk_win | 274 | 273 | 0.9964 | -0.2068 | -0.2322 | -0.0875 | SMALL_SAMPLE_DIAGNOSTIC |
| large_field_value_win | 153 | 153 | 1.0 | -0.5817 | -0.611 | -0.3471 | SMALL_SAMPLE_DIAGNOSTIC |
| exacta_consensus_ab | 1760 | 1758 | 0.9989 | -0.3563 | -0.3132 | -0.5477 | NOT_VALIDATED |
| exacta_ml_fav_over_model_value | 2077 | 2075 | 0.999 | -0.5145 | -0.5304 | -0.4448 | NOT_VALIDATED |
| exacta_model_top_over_ml_top3 | 2077 | 2075 | 0.999 | -0.5798 | -0.5653 | -0.6427 | NOT_VALIDATED |
| exacta_vulnerable_favorite_underneath | 546 | 546 | 1.0 | -0.6442 | -0.6125 | -0.7645 | NOT_VALIDATED |
| exacta_tight_consensus_box | 1388 | 1387 | 0.9993 | -0.5509 | -0.519 | -0.6988 | NOT_VALIDATED |
| trifecta_narrow_consensus | 1625 | 1623 | 0.9988 | -0.8071 | -0.7613 | -1.0 | NOT_VALIDATED |
| trifecta_ml_model_hybrid | 2056 | 2054 | 0.999 | -0.5662 | -0.5654 | -0.5692 | NOT_VALIDATED |
| driver_trainer_power_win | 619 | 618 | 0.9984 | -0.4154 | -0.3339 | -0.7333 | NOT_VALIDATED |
| driver_trainer_power_place | 1461 | 1461 | 1.0 | -0.5372 | -0.5192 | -0.6164 | NOT_VALIDATED |
| hot_driver_inside_place | 951 | 951 | 1.0 | -0.5169 | -0.4996 | -0.6022 | NOT_VALIDATED |
| cold_favorite_fade_win | 387 | 387 | 1.0 | -0.4238 | -0.3553 | -0.7039 | NOT_VALIDATED |
| model_score_gap_value_win | 182 | 182 | 1.0 | -0.2703 | -0.2683 | -0.2775 | SMALL_SAMPLE_DIAGNOSTIC |
| low_score_favorite_fade_place | 350 | 350 | 1.0 | -0.5076 | -0.5334 | -0.4043 | NOT_VALIDATED |
| claiming_value_place | 697 | 697 | 1.0 | -0.7865 | -0.8153 | -0.6805 | NOT_VALIDATED |
| open_class_consensus_win | 45 | 45 | 1.0 | -0.1767 | -0.3514 | 0.5222 | SMALL_SAMPLE_DIAGNOSTIC |
| maiden_nw_value_win | 298 | 298 | 1.0 | -0.3181 | -0.2529 | -0.6 | SMALL_SAMPLE_DIAGNOSTIC |
| middle_post_consensus_place | 1085 | 1085 | 1.0 | -0.4087 | -0.3952 | -0.4675 | NOT_VALIDATED |
| exacta_driver_edge | 1167 | 1166 | 0.9991 | -0.677 | -0.6609 | -0.7493 | NOT_VALIDATED |
| exacta_value_reverse | 739 | 739 | 1.0 | -0.544 | -0.4845 | -0.7896 | NOT_VALIDATED |
| trifecta_inside_model | 1091 | 1090 | 0.9991 | -0.7491 | -0.6871 | -1.0 | NOT_VALIDATED |
| mined_nw_deep_model_rank6_win | 214 | 214 | 1.0 | -0.0234 | 0.0006 | -0.1342 | SMALL_SAMPLE_DIAGNOSTIC |
| mined_nw_rank6_outside_midodds_win | 77 | 77 | 1.0 | 0.1481 | 0.1828 | -0.0231 | SMALL_SAMPLE_DIAGNOSTIC |
| mined_large_field_ml2_driver_mid_win | 104 | 104 | 1.0 | -0.1154 | -0.1545 | -0.0037 | SMALL_SAMPLE_DIAGNOSTIC |
| segment_specialist_training_only_win | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | NO_BETS |
| segment_specialist_training_only_place | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | NO_BETS |
| segment_specialist_training_only_exacta | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | NO_BETS |
Result Counts
- Strategies with bets: 36
- Strategies with at least 300 resolved bets: 27
- Positive discovery ROI: 1
- Positive walk-forward ROI: 2
- Positive locked holdout ROI: 1
Latest Findings
One data-mined pocket was positive in discovery and walk-forward, but it failed locked holdout and is too small to validate. Nothing is paper-tradable or live-wagerable.
| Finding | Strategy | Resolved | Discovery ROI | Walk-Forward ROI | Holdout ROI | Status | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discovery-positive mined pocket | mined_nw_rank6_outside_midodds_win | 77 | +14.81% | +18.28% | -2.31% | SMALL_SAMPLE_DIAGNOSTIC | Positive discovery and walk-forward, but failed locked holdout and has only 77 resolved bets. |
| Walk-forward near-flat diagnostic | mined_nw_deep_model_rank6_win | 214 | -2.34% | +0.06% | -13.42% | SMALL_SAMPLE_DIAGNOSTIC | Walk-forward was barely positive, but discovery and holdout were negative. |
| Holdout-only control | open_class_consensus_win | 45 | -17.67% | -35.14% | +52.22% | SMALL_SAMPLE_DIAGNOSTIC | Holdout was positive, but discovery and walk-forward were negative with only 45 resolved bets. |
Exports
summary CSV, summary JSON, ticket ledger, fold results, holdout results, baseline comparison.